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Fair Popular Vote Math

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In order to truly calculate a fair popular vote total, you need to adjust upwards proportionally the number of caucus votes by the average ratio of caucus goers to primary voters.

I am going to try and prove this with some numbers from a simple scenario.  Say there is one caucus goer for every 10 primary voters.  Say there are 3 states with these results:

Primary 1 Clinton Wins 60-40%
Population 1000 - 300 Clinton Votes,           200 Obama Votes

Primary 2 50-50% Tie
Population 500  - 125 Clinton Votes,            125 Obama Votes

Caucus 1 Obama Wins 60-40%
Population 1000 - 20 Clinton Caucus Votes, 30 Obama Caucus Votes

If you add up the total votes you get: 445 Clinton to 355 Obama, a 55.6 to 44.4% Clinton win.  You have two large states, with the same population, going for opposite candidates by the same percentage, which should cancel out.  The other state is a tie, so the result should be a tie.  But by just counting VOTES, this gives one candidate an unfair win.   The smaller state primary vote is skewing the results in Clinton's favor in this example.

The fair way to create an apples to apples popular vote count is below the fold.


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